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Exercise 24: Maintaining differing sets of assumptions

Watch the video presentation and/or read the full text below

We could just iterate the tariff input through a series of increasing values as a single exercise until we found values that would yield the desired payback results, but what if we want to re-visit one of these values? Rather than write down and re-enter by hand, we can structure our model to retain a set of alternative values for the tariff input:

  1. Select the Rental Tariff field in the body of the Tariffs dialog for the service.
  2. Click Variants on the dialog menu, and select Add as Scenario Parameter… from the drop-down. A Variant Data dialog is displayed with three copies of the original value. The three columns are headed Variant 1, Variant 2 and Variant 3, and the first of ten rows is labelled Broadbandconnecti...l.CostIndepTariff. You will see behind that the original input cell is shaded pink to indicate that the value is volatile and will change.
  3. We know all the values need to be higher, so let’s try 80/100/120 as illustrated below (i.e., doubling again for the highest).

Figure 51: Entering three alternative values for the Rental Tariff input as a scenario parameter

The Variants menu includes commands to View Original or View Variant Data which you can use to jump between the Variant Data dialog and the original Tariffs dialog.

Four new icons are visible in the background: a dimension, and three variant elements. The dimension element identifies the tariff input as a relevant parameter, and the associated variant elements provide alternative values which may be used for that input.

We will rename these elements to make our intentions clearer:

  1. Click and drag around the four new icons to (rubber-band) select them.
  2. Right-click the selection, and then select Rename… from the icon menu (or press <Ctrl+R> or <F2>). The Editor prompts for a new name for each element in turn.
  3. Name the elements as shown below. The column headings in the Variant Data dialog are updated accordingly.

Figure 52: The model now maintains Low, Medium and High scenarios for the Rental Tariff input

As you would guess from the user interface, this Variant Data can be readily extended to cover multiple, correlated inputs (e.g., higher tariff, lower demand), and you can have as many variants as you like. Other assumptions, such as technical evolution or supplier pricing, may be varied independently with the addition of further dimensions. (Beyond the scope of this tutorial.)

Things that you should have seen and understood

Dimension element, variant element
Add as Scenario Parameter, Variant Data, View Original, View Variant Data

 

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